The CEO of Monweh Energy Group and international energy analyst, Christopher Z. Neyor, has presented a set of concrete and sustainable solutions to Liberia’s longstanding energy crisis. In a 4-page expert opinion, CEO Neyor outlined short-term, medium-term, and long-term solutions to continued power outages in Monrovia and across Liberia as a whole. PLEASE read his perspective below titled:
The Genesis of Liberia’s Continuous Power Outages and the Overlooked Solution
Monrovia in Darkness
Over the last few weeks, the Liberian Capital Monrovia and its surroundings have been plunged into protracted electricity outages that have caused severe loss of productivity, spoilage of refrigerated food in homes and businesses by those who cannot afford private generators or the fuel to run them. Also, many are feeling the general discomfort in the middle of the dry season heat without air conditioners or fans. The growing frustration from the incessant power outages has prompted angry commentaries verbal and written from a cross segment of the Liberian population.
One of those commentaries was written by my friend F. Ford Dennis, in which he elaborated on the incompetence of the LEC to meet its statutory obligation to supply electricity to the nation. His article was published in the Daily Observer. Another paper was written by economist Sam Jackson, published on his Facebook page, in which he basically summarized his research on electricity (for which I provided some guidance –for full disclosure) for his LSE course and he expounded on it further in a Spoon TV interview. These and other shorter comments in social media chartrooms, offices and around the beer tables point to the growing restlessness of the population on the growing severity of electricity shortage.
Amidst this national electricity crisis, I have received numerous inquiries on my thoughts and suggestions. This paper along with other documents (to be published later) related to the inadequacy and inefficiency of electricity in Liberia is in response to those requests for my comments. As the nation’s leading energy specialist who once ran the LEC prewar, advised the President and the Minister of Lands, Mines and Energy on post war power restoration, spearheaded writing of the current Liberia National Energy Policy (LNEP) and initiated the conceptual framework for full development of the nearly 1000 MW capacity of the St Paul River basin, I think I “know a thing or two” when it comes to electricity in Liberia.
A Historical Self-made Problem
It is said that insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. Liberia’s power problem has its origin in the 60s when lacking vision, the error that has haunted us for decades was made to grant individual power generation rights to all the incoming mining concessions (LAMCO, BMC, LNOIC, LMC) and then built the Mt Coffee hydropower station as a run of river facility on the St Paul River. Run of River means, the hydro plant has no storage dam (reservoir) to regulate the water flow but the plant runs only on the natural flow of the river. Run of river plants work on smaller hydro or in areas where the river flow is constant year-round but, unfortunately in Liberia, our rivers run low or dry up in the dry season such that operation of the hydro plant is not possible.
The St Paul River has potential of 800 to 1000 MW and its optimum development would require building of a dam to hold the excess water during the rain season and gradually release (regulate) it during the dry season when the river flow is low. What the feasibility completed decades ago recommends, is construction of a dam in the Lofa highlands at the confluence of the St Paul river with the Via River and build cascaded plants of different capacities from 80 to 214 MW at the dam site and downstream. The current Mt. Coffee Hydropower Plant was to be the last downstream of those cascaded plants in the St Paul River Basin. Below is a schematic of this project:
The potential of the St Paul River is more than adequate to supply electricity to the entire country utilizing high voltage transmission lines to population centers, industrial and agricultural processing zones (there is the option to supply all of northern, western and central Liberia from the St Paul River and the southeastern counties could be fed from a smaller Cavalla River hydro project). However, building a dam to store water on the St Paul is very expensive. How is it going to be paid for? That’s where the shortsightedness of our policymakers and planners fell short.
You see, an investment in anything must show how money put into that project is going to be repaid. For example, in power, if you want to borrow money to build a plant, you have to show the bank (or consortium of banks) or deep pocket investors how they will get their money back (of course with a return) by showing the cost of project, who the operators will be and who are the end users of the product or service with proven ability to pay. If an Independent Power Producer (IPP) is going to undertake a project like the St Paul River dam and its cascading plants, it must show to its lenders who it has designated to buy the power. This is what is referred to as off-takers. The IPP signs a PPA or Power Purchase Agreement with the off-taker(s) and this becomes the basis for the bank loan required to build the plant.
Our economic planners unfortunately didn’t see or wasn’t courageous to use the mining concessions they were negotiating with as power off-takers to enable the government secure financing for development of the St Paul River basin for generation of electricity for the mines and other consumers. Instead of taking advantage of this naturally presented golden opportunity, they elected to allow the then incoming mines to build individual generation plants run with imported fossil fuel. The development of the mines, from the effective date of concessions to beginning of actual mining for a green (new) mine takes up to 5 years which could have been done in parallel with development of the first phase of the St Paul River dam and initial generating stations in time to supply power to the mines as they became operational. In other words, the government in knowing what it wanted in the best interest of the country and the people could have killed two birds with one stone. Regrettably, that did not happen.
Consequences of the Error
When our economic planners and leaders blindly granted mining concessions exclusive right to produce their own power, they had no other high power-consuming bankable anchor attractive to financiers to develop the St Paul basin because, without such, residential and commercial consumption of a small population like ours could not justify the high investment in the dam construction. A lower cost version of the St Paul River Basin was therefore built as run of river with 64 MW capacity. Realizing that the 64 MW will generally not be available during the dry season, a corresponding 64 MW gas turbine plant was built at Bushrod Island.
The price of gas oil was cheap in the 60s and early 70s when the gas turbine plants were erected but when the Arabs sharply increased the cost of fuel in the 70s the gas turbines operation during the dry season became a challenge and there were periodic load shedding during the dry season. When the cost of running the gas turbines became unbearable, an HFO (heavy fuel oil) plant was added at Bushrod for a more affordable operation. However high maintenance and operating costs of these thermal generators resulted to periodic blackouts during the dry season though not anywhere near what it is today. This is where we were, when I became Managing Director and began to redirect government focus to development of the St Paul River Basin as the permanent solution to our chronic power situation until our civil war began.
Repeated Error
You cannot solve a problem by the same mindset that created it. –Albert EinsteinFast forward to the Ellen Johnson era during which I was privileged to serve as Energy Adviser with prime responsibility to develop strategy to restore Liberia’s post civil war destroyed power infrastructure. With all power infrastructures destroyed including Mt. Coffee hydropower station, the thermal plants at Bushrod and the entire transmission and distribution network, we had to start from zero. We devised a 3-prong strategy to not only restore power but also to ensure an accessible, reliable, affordable and sustainable solution to the power outages of the past. The “Small Light Today and Big Light Tomorrow” slogan was meant to take us from the EPP (Emergency Power Phase) to the IPP (Independent power Phase) to the HPP (Hydropower Phase) that included not only rehabilitating Mt. Coffee but fully developing the St. Paul River Basin with the building of a water storage dam, the “Big Light.”
As we proceeded with these undertakings, the opportunity came again to pursue full development of the St. Paul River as negotiations were underway to restart old mines and begin new ones. There were Arcelor Mittal for the old LAMCO, China Union for the old Bong Mines and the Western Cluster of old and new mines in western Liberia. We also had the opportunity of the then planned West Africa Power Pool (WAPP) transmission project to interconnect Liberia’s electric network with the other Ecowas countries. These provided two golden opportunities to finance the St Paul River project because we had; 1) the incoming mines as off-takers we could sign pre-construction PPA with; and 2) the WAPP transmission network (CLSG) could provide an evacuation channel for export of the excess power to other ECOWAS countries.
Our National Energy Plan captured this opportunity for the St. Paul River development and I made a presentation to the Cabinet proposing the framework for execution of this vital national project through an SPV (Special Purpose Vehicle called the SPRA (St Paul River Authority). I proposed that the President declare development of the St Paul River hydropower potential as a National Priority Project and set up a Task Force made up of public and private sector members to get the project off the ground. That Task Force was set up (Prof Monie Captan, now Chair of LEC Board, was on that committee representing the Liberia Chamber of Commerce) and after my presentation to President Lula during a State visit of President EJS to Brazil, he got excited and expressed desire to help Liberia build its hydropower project. Following the visit, the Brazilian construction giant Odebrecht was sent to join us as a private sector partner but, unfortunately, the entire St. Paul River came to a halt after my advisory role ended and what we ended with was the same problem we were trying to solve -Mt. Coffee was rehabilitated to be run of river again with full power production in the rain season but near zero generation during the dry season.
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different result.
Advice to President George Weah
After election and inauguration of President George Weah in 2018, I reached out to him, congratulated him and offered my advice on the critical national issues including electricity even though I supported Joe Boakai during the election. I did so because I thought his new government needed help and I wanted to lend my expert advice as a country-loving citizen putting politics aside.
Let me share below two letters sent to President Weah on national issues inclusive of road and power infrastructure and calling his attention to the need to vigorously pursue the full development of the St. Paul as a National Priority Project. President Weah has a connection with LEC. When I served as Managing Director and King George was in his early glory in Europe and right after he won his first African Footballer of the Year Award, I contracted him to be spokesperson for LEC to help create awareness of the new direction LEC was going. He was featured in radio and television ads and on billboards at strategic points around country, which were highly effective until the civil conflict. I also wrote the Energy Platform for the new CDC political party in 2005 and believed that President Weah was familiar with the issues of electricity and would give the “reminders” outlined in my letters due attention but his government, unfortunately, seems to be going down the path of our past leaders, lacking the vision and courage to do great things for the country. Let the letters speak for themselves.
